Fantasy Rookie Drafts; Thoughts of free agency; Matthew Tkachuk, David Quinn and more (July 22) – DobberHockey
Between Dobber covering for me on opening day in free agency and trading days with Cliffy this week, it’s been a while since I’ve been able to share a few thoughts here.
I’ll start with the draft, and while I’m not a prospect expert (I defer to the DobberProspects group for that one), I often find myself having drafts of successful prospects in my fantasy leagues. The more sources you can read to form your own balanced opinion of the players, the better. That being said, I often find that it’s not the average of the opinions that matters, but it’s the outliers that you really need to take note of and determine if there’s something there that the consensus overlooks, or if it’s just someone trying to be different for the sake of it.
On that note, one of the players that I’ve seen a few scouts get in the top 10, when his average ranking was probably in the 20s, was Noah Ostlund (16e general selection by Buffalo). Ostlund is a player that I think a handful of scouts really identified as one of the most projectable players in the draft, and they got him up on their draft board because they liked what they saw. However, with his two linemates for the year (Jonathan Lekkerimaki and Liam Ohgren) also being draft-eligible prospects and playing a flashier game, I think Ostlund was often overlooked and was the consensus number three in result. . In the end, I ranked him in the top 10 for my fantasy drafts and managed to snag him in 25th place.
A few others I like who seem to fall further than where I would take them in fantasy drafts: Denton Mateychuk, Brad Lambert, Lane Hutson, Gleb Trikozov, and Adam Sykora.
If you want to see average fantasy league numbers, check out Tyler Matson’s Twitter where posted an updated list last night:
I also haven’t posted any ramblings since free agency opened, and while I’ve shared some of my thoughts in the site’s fancy articles, I still like having the best and the worst contract sign. At this point, here’s what they would each be:
Best – Ilya Samsonov (G), Toronto Maple Leafs
One-year contract worth $1.8 million
Samsonov was seen on the same level as Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin not too long ago, but never quite found his game with the Capitals. The Maple Leafs were a better team and could hit a home run with a cheap goaltender again this year. They also have the added advantage that Samsonov is still a restricted free agent next summer and can retain his rights for at least another season. Getting a possible starting goaltender with a huge upside but very little commitment wrote a home run all over the place.
SM: Nino Niederreiter, Calle Jarnkrok, Dylan Strome
Worst – Erik Gudbranson (R), Columbus Blue Jackets
Four years at $4.0 million per year
I’ll start by saying if that was the difference between signing Johnny Gaudreau and not, then it doesn’t look so bad. That being said, it’s still twice as much and twice as long as the maximum someone should have been willing to pay for a third hitter on defense. Bad-branson will always offer solid peripherals in fantasy leagues, but in cap leagues he is almost unavailable.
SM: Nicolas Deslauriers, Nick Leddy, Ben Chiarot, Nikita Zadorov (detecting a trend?)
If you want to learn more about some possible free agency disappointments, Rick has you covered here.
If you want to see the quick breakdowns for each of the top 100 players, click on the tweet with Gaudreau, and the rest is in the thread below. If you just want the projections of the top 100 free agents in June to work as a comparison for their new deals, click here.
Although free agency has calmed down, there are still a few useful players between Phil Kessel, Nazem Kadri and John Klingberg, but one name was scratched off the list yesterday in Nino Niederreiter (I think I can finally spell his name now) . El Nino signed in Nashville for two years at $4 million a season, and the general consensus was that it was a good deal for the Preds. Niederreiter fills a need on the second line and should bring a much-needed combination of goal-scoring ability and sandpaper to the second line alongside playmaker Ryan Johansen. The new Predators winger has scored about 50 points in four of the last six seasons, while only seeing one season in his career above 16 minutes of ice time per game. Expect an increase in ice time from the winger who has an impressive record of even-strength metrics. However, he is unlikely to spend much time with the man advantage, likely capping his production around his previous career high of 57 points.
If the Predators really want to strengthen their top six, then they’re said to be one of the teams on Matthew Tkachuk’s list where he’d rather be traded. In order to acquire Tkachuk, who is one of the best wingers in the game right now and who is only 24 years old, he will need a big package and the possibility of passing a contract of around $ 10 million under the ceiling. With the acquisitions of Niederreiter and Ryan McDonagh, the Preds are starting to climb pretty close to the ceiling. This is what will eventually take them out of the race.
What it will take in a trade is a decent, controllable player, a top prospect, a first-round pick, and another asset. There are a few teams that could make it happen, though the St. Louis Blue and Vegas Golden Knights make the most sense at this point. With a move seemingly inevitable, we have to wonder what this does to Elias Lindholm’s worth. Losing a 100-point winger would hurt, but losing two 100-point wingers and replacing them with Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman is just plain unfair. Without the two star wingers, Lindholm is likely to turn into a
pumpkin 65-point center, and defensemen take a hit at all levels.
The NHL schedule was released a few weeks ago without much fanfare. I haven’t had time to go through my usual planning of best and worst teams to own players based on their head-to-head schedules, but keep an eye on that over the next few weeks. One thing I’ve seen pointed out is how Arizona is off to a rocky start, playing 20 of its first 24 games on the road. We saw last year how that can affect a team like the Islanders, who have struggled to build momentum all year. On top of that, as a bad team, a slow start can create a hole that’s impossible to get out of. He was someone you were probably going to avoid initially, but maybe drop those players even further down your draft boards.
Another planning oddity is the season which begins abroad with the Predators and Sharks playing back-to-back in Prague on the 7th.e and 8e October (Friday/Saturday). From there, the next matches are on Tuesday 11eand there are no matches on Sunday 16e. The Predators and Sharks will both play Game 4 on Saturday this week, with some teams only playing Game 2 that day.
The Sharks also now have a new head coach. Without much depth in the roster, there’s probably not much to shake up within the skater squad, but with three goaltenders, it’ll be interesting to see how Quinn handles things. In the crease, Quinn’s history with the Rangers shows that he tends to spread starts more evenly than other coaches at the NHL level. For the Sharks this year, having a three-headed goaltender set of Adin Hill, James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen means that even if one is traded, don’t expect any of them. between them hitting 50 games for the Sharks this season, and if all three stay on the team, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect less than 35 starts for each.