Hockey Costs

Top 10 Overvalued Fantasy Hockey Players from 2021-2022


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The term “bust” makes sense for attention-grabbing headlines, but it’s a reductive term in a fantasy hockey context. Labeling a player as a bust implies that I’m the Homer-Simpson-Bushes-Meme manner that drives me away from him in all drafts. This is not always true. I’m not necessarily against player possession. The “bust” status applies because I am wary of his average draft position (ADP). Getting it into Yahoo’s standard drafts requires paying a cost that I don’t think will pay off. So a perfectly good player can land on a bust roster if I just don’t like their ADP. “Overvalued” is a more accurate label than “bust”, however, which is why I renamed this column a few years ago.

I define overrated fantasy players based on these criteria:

1. Players whose production will not correspond to their average position in the draft
2. The players are drafted before the players who will surpass them
3. Players with falsely inflated value due to actual success, playing in popular markets or other emotional attachments

Here are my top 10 overpriced fantasy picks, in alphabetical order, crossed with my ranking of the top 250 fantasy players for 2021-2022.

Jamie Benn, LW, Dallas Stars (My Rank: 230; Yahoo ADP: 133.5)

Ah, the novice copywriter trap. Someone’s hockey pool has an odd number of GMs, they need another manager, so they invite someone who has only an occasional interest in the sport – someone who remembers of Benn of the 2014 Canadian Olympic Team and who won the Art Ross Trophy in 2014-15. That’s my guess as to why Benn is selected, on average, ahead of Kevin Fiala, Jack Hughes and Dominik Kubalik. Benn, 31, was past his prime faster than expected because his power play took its toll on his body. From the age of 22 to 28, he averaged 33 goals and 79 points in 82 games. In three seasons since: 23 goals and 52 points. These latest numbers still make him very scalable, especially in leagues that have his hits, but he’s selected ahead of players with much greater potential at the moment.

Jack Campbell, G, Toronto Maple Leafs (My rank: 150e; Yahoo ADP: 66.0)

Does Campbell’s ADP reflect leagues drafted in May? He was formidable in 2020-21, in which he set a team record for consecutive wins to start a season and succeeded Frederik Andersen as Toronto’s starter for the playoffs. But Campbell is currently selected, on average, as the 12e keeper off the board. It also doesn’t reflect a statistically low ownership rate as Campbell was drafted into 100% of the leagues. It’s ridiculous to see him get picked ahead of starters like Jordan Binnington and Ilya Samsonov. The Leafs haven’t signed Petr Mrazek for $ 3.8 million a season to warm up the bench. He and Campbell have a ticket to a 50-50 split to start the season and are expected to compete year round for the net. Campbell does a good G2 or G3 but shouldn’t be drafted as No.1 in Fantasy Pools when his volume stat floor is so low.

Braden Holtby, G, Dallas Stars (My rank: 202sd; Yahoo ADP: 157.9)

A $ 2 million one-year pact suggests the Stars will be playing Holtby for a decent amount, but he’s part of a four-headed monster that causes headaches for fantasy owners. Ben Bishop may or may not miss the season recovering from knee surgery. He works on the ice now, but is still not medically cleared to play. Anton Khudobin still holds a big slice of the goalie pie. Jake Oettinger is the starter of the team’s future. A source told me that the most likely Stars setup is a Holtby-Khudobin tandem to open the year with Oettinger securing starter reps in the AHL – but it’s too early for that plan to be locked in. Whatever happens, don’t hit on any Dallas goalie. Two-man timeshares are bad enough in the fantasy, and Dallas juggles four guys.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Carolina Hurricanes (My Rank: None; Yahoo ADP: 166.9)

The summer offering soap opera was certainly exciting. It also appears to have raised Kotkaniemi’s profile and artificially inflated his fantastic worth. Kotkaniemi is still only 21, but he’s seen as a below-average scoring chance generator and barely average 5-to-5 playmaker so far in his NHL career. He showed no trend under the hood to suggest a breakout is looming. If you drafte it, you are betting on pure potential. You also bet he’ll knock down someone like Nino Niederreiter or Teuvo Teravainen in an already solid Hurricanes top six. It’s good to take a look at a player like Kotkaniemi – but not at his ADP, where you pass on established talent.

Darcy Kuemper, G, Colorado Avalanche (My rank: 46th; Yahoo ADP: 21.9)

Understanding the purpose of this exercise is crucial when it comes to the “overvalued” Kuemper label. Kuemper is an excellent goalkeeper. Over the past three seasons, he has ranked in the top third in the NHL for above-average goals saved by 60 minutes. You to do want him on your fantastic team this season, because he’s landed in the best position of his career, starting with juggernaut Avalanche, who was the NHL’s top defensive team last season. Kuemper, however, is currently averaging a second-round pick and is the third goaltender off the board in the draft. Wow. That is to say rich for someone who has only started 30 games in a season. There is just way too much helium in ADP at this point. If you take a goalie in the second round, you want a proven bellcow that will start 60 games and bear no question marks about durability. How is Kuemper drafted before Connor Hellebuyck?

Alec Martinez, D, Vegas Golden Knights (My Rank: 245; Yahoo ADP: 142.6)

Editors appear to be continuing Martinez’s surprising offensive explosion of 2020-21. He set a career-high points in just 53 games… at 33, while doubling his shooting percentage from the previous season. Martinez will always be a great source of blocks in Fantasy Leagues, but last season’s numbers seem a bit hit and miss. He’s not a prolific shooter, he doesn’t play in the best power play unit, and he’s more of a two-way defender than a pure offensive weapon. Last season’s 9-23-32 stat line could be achievable in 82 games, not 53 again.

Ondrej Palat, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning (My rank: 165th; Yahoo ADP: 75.0)

Quite a gap between my rank and the Palat ADP. He’s a top-75 pick on average because he plays on Tampa’s dynamite front row with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. I understand. But Palat is a better real player than the fantasy option. It brings two-way awareness to a scoring line. He produced at the best rate per game of his career in 2020-21, but he exceeded 20 goals and 60 points each in nine seasons. I want more than one difference maker with a top 75 selection. Palat is currently chosen ahead of stallions like Shea Theodore and Sam Reinhart. Yuck.

Carey Price, G, Montreal Canadiens (My Rank: 90; Yahoo ADP: 61.8)

Carey Price is a future Hall of Famer. Carey Price is a proven goalkeeper. Carey Price becomes a playoff beast. Carey Price has been a fantastic below average goaltender in three of his past four seasons. All of these things can be true. In his last four regular seasons combined, he has a 2.75 goals against average and .909 save percentage. He misses training camp as he recovers from a knee injury and has a replacement who was acquired to reduce his workload at Jake Allen. If you pick Price in the top 60, you are doing it because he is a famous brand and a playoff hero. Regular season pricing has been an ordinary fancy option for several years.

Alexander Radulov, AD, Dallas Stars (My rank: 148e; Yahoo ADP: 90.7)

Radulov is not finished as an effective striker. He snatched 12 points in his 11-game sample last season. Yet he is now 35 years old and is coming back from a chronic trunk injury that would have bothered him for five years. years. He presents quite a bit of risk for someone with a top 100 ADP, and Joe Pavelski usurped him as the team’s leading right-winger.

Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens (My rank: 110e; Yahoo ADP: 91.5)

Calm. I said CALM! I love Suzuki as a player, don’t worry! But keep in mind he’s such a good player because he does so many good things. It is an intelligent two-way center capable of assuming responsibilities anywhere on the ice, in all situations. Suzuki could therefore be an extremely effective No.1 pivot in real life while collecting 55 to 60 points. If you write it down to 70 this year, you might be on your way to.

THE ‘WTF’ STARS

What ? If you are in a league that selects these players, let alone so high up, send me screenshots of what the rosters look like. What is happening with these ADPs? Andersen enters the top 50? Excuse me?!

– Frederik Andersen, G, Carolina Hurricanes (My rank: 198e; Yahoo ADP: 44.0)

– Brian Elliott, G, Tampa Bay Lightning (My rank: none; Yahoo ADP: 165.4)

– Robby Fabbri, LW, Detroit Red Wings (My rank: none; Yahoo ADP: 160.4)

– Kevin Lankinen, G, Chicago Blackhawks (My rank: none; Yahoo ADP: 103.7)

– Zach Whitecloud, D, Vegas Golden Knights (My rank: none; Yahoo ADP: 160.8)

THE RED FLAG LIST

These players aren’t considered overvalued based on their ADPs, which are actually close to my ranking, but they still come with a risk worth considering if you break a tie by trying to choose between players when you are on the clock.

G – Robin Lehner, Vegas Golden Knights: He’s a huge talent, but he’s currently the second goalkeeper out of the table on average in the draft. It’s incredibly expensive for someone with a pretty high risk of injury.

D – Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars: It’s a cornerstone of the franchise in real life, but its fantastic numbers are pretty straightforward. He can be a good caliber Norris scoring 45 points, but people choose him expecting over 60 in pools.

D – Torey Krug, D, Blues de Saint-Louis: It is not the same far from Boston. He’s a perfectly useful source of assists in fantasy, but his elite cap has vanished in St. Louis.

F – Tyler Bertuzzi, AG, Red Wings: You don’t want to have the headache of owning an unvaccinated player in the fantasy. There is already a padlock for missing matches.

F – Tyler Seguin, C, Dallas Stars: Not all players come back from hip surgery as easily as Nikita Kucherov did. Equally common is Ryan Kesler’s fate. We don’t know for sure that Seguin will ever be the same.

F – Tyler Toffoli, AD, Montreal Canadiens: Sheesh, what do I have against guys named Tyler? Toffoli’s goals increased last year, but not his underlying shooting measures. To finish seventh again on goals would be a surprise.

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